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October Economic Trends
December 6, 2019 – Metro Milwaukee employment hit another all-time high, and 10 of 23 metro area business activity indicators registered improvement in October, according to a monthly report by the Metropolitan Milwaukee Association of Commerce (MMAC). October’s 10 positives match the 10 improvements posted in September. |
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“The number of improvements remains sluggish in total, but metro area job totals reached an all-time high in October and overall job growth posted its highest year-over-year gain since April 2016,” said Bret Mayborne, economic research director for the MMAC. “On the downside, manufacturing indicators tracked by the MMAC continue to post weakness.”
Highlights of the report include:
Highlights of the report include:
- Nonfarm employment in the metro area averaged 890,800 in October, a new record high, surpassing the previous high of 889,500 in June. In addition, October’s 1.3% year-over-year growth rate was the strongest job gain posted in three and one-half years (since April 2016).
- Five of ten major industry sectors recorded year-over-year job increases in October. The “other services” sector posted October’s largest employment gain, up 4.4%. Five major sectors also registered declines with the financial activities sector recording the largest drop - down 1.9%.
- Manufacturing related indicators each registered year-over-year declines in October. Manufacturing job levels averaged 116,400, the lowest monthly employment average posted in this industry in over eight years (since May 2011).
Unemployment indicators for the metro area weakened in September. The number of unemployed rose 21.6% from one year ago to 27,600 – this indicator’s largest percentage increase vs. year-ago levels since February 2010. September’s increase led to a 0.6 percentage point rise in the seasonally unadjusted unemployment rate. Metro Milwaukee’s rate averaged 3.4% in September, higher than both the 2.9% rate posted statewide and the 3.3% figure recorded nationally.
The local unemployment trend was mostly negative. The number of unemployed rose 14.8% over year-ago levels, to 25,600, leading to a 0.4 percentage point rise in the unemployment rate. Metro Milwaukee’s seasonally unadjusted unemployment rate reached 3.1% in October, higher than Wisconsin’s 2.8% rate, but lower than the nation’s 3.3% rate. On the positive side, new unemployment compensation claims fell 21.5%, to 2,122.
Indicators: October 2019 vs. October 2018
Nonfarm employment in the metro area grew at a 1.3% pace in October (vs. year-ago levels) pushing to an all-time high employment level of 890,800. October’s growth exceeds the year-to-date average over the 2019’s first 10 months (up 0.8%) and inched toward the national growth rate of 1.4% in October (vs. year-ago levels).
Five of 10 major industry sectors posted year-over-year job gains in October. Metro area employment in the “other services” sector rose 4.4%, the strongest year-over-year percentage gain among major industry sectors. Job gains were also recorded in the education & health services (up 4.1%), leisure & hospitality (up 3.7%), trade, transportation & utilities (up 1.6%), and construction, mining and natural resources (up 1.5%) sectors.
Five of 10 major industry sectors registered October employment declines. Jobs in the financial activities sector fell 1.9% vs. year-ago levels, to 50,800. Declines were also posted in the manufacturing (down 1.7%), information (down 1.5%), professional & business services (down 0.1%), and government (down 0.1%) sectors.
Manufacturing job levels fell, year-over-year, for the third consecutive month, pushing monthly manufacturing job totals to 116,400, its lowest level since May 2011. Hours and earnings indicators for manufacturing production workers remain negative. The length of a production worker’s average workweek fell 1.6% in October, to 41.9 hours. Likewise, both earnings indicators trended downward. Average weekly earnings fell 8% (to $910), while average hourly earnings decreased 6.5%, to $21.72.
Both local housing and real estate indicators tracked by the MMAC trended upward in October. Metro area existing home sales rose 9.4% in October (to 1,510), following September’s 6.2% increase (vs. year-ago levels). Mortgages recorded in Milwaukee County numbered 3,029 in October, a 47.3% increase over year-ago levels and the largest year-over-year gain posted since March 2015.
New-car registrations fell 16.2% in October to 1,245, marking this indicator’s fifth consecutive, year-over-year decline. Similarly, air passenger totals at Mitchell International Airport fell for the fifth time in six months. Passenger numbers decreased 1.7% in October to 586,376, following the 2.3% increase posted in September.
Five of 10 major industry sectors posted year-over-year job gains in October. Metro area employment in the “other services” sector rose 4.4%, the strongest year-over-year percentage gain among major industry sectors. Job gains were also recorded in the education & health services (up 4.1%), leisure & hospitality (up 3.7%), trade, transportation & utilities (up 1.6%), and construction, mining and natural resources (up 1.5%) sectors.
Five of 10 major industry sectors registered October employment declines. Jobs in the financial activities sector fell 1.9% vs. year-ago levels, to 50,800. Declines were also posted in the manufacturing (down 1.7%), information (down 1.5%), professional & business services (down 0.1%), and government (down 0.1%) sectors.
Manufacturing job levels fell, year-over-year, for the third consecutive month, pushing monthly manufacturing job totals to 116,400, its lowest level since May 2011. Hours and earnings indicators for manufacturing production workers remain negative. The length of a production worker’s average workweek fell 1.6% in October, to 41.9 hours. Likewise, both earnings indicators trended downward. Average weekly earnings fell 8% (to $910), while average hourly earnings decreased 6.5%, to $21.72.
Both local housing and real estate indicators tracked by the MMAC trended upward in October. Metro area existing home sales rose 9.4% in October (to 1,510), following September’s 6.2% increase (vs. year-ago levels). Mortgages recorded in Milwaukee County numbered 3,029 in October, a 47.3% increase over year-ago levels and the largest year-over-year gain posted since March 2015.
New-car registrations fell 16.2% in October to 1,245, marking this indicator’s fifth consecutive, year-over-year decline. Similarly, air passenger totals at Mitchell International Airport fell for the fifth time in six months. Passenger numbers decreased 1.7% in October to 586,376, following the 2.3% increase posted in September.
Other Indicators (Latest Available)
Consumer prices nationally, as measured by the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U), rose 1.8% in October (vs. October 2018) to 257.346 (1982-84 =100). As of 2018’s first half, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics no longer produces a consumer price index for the Milwaukee area.