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May Economic Trends
July 3, 2019 – Business activity in metro Milwaukee posted a small uptick in the number of improved indicators, according to a report issued by the Metropolitan Milwaukee Association of Commerce (MMAC). Eleven of 22 available indictors pointed upward in May vs. year-ago levels, up from the 10 improvements registered in April. |
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“The current economic environment is a mixture of both positive and cautionary trends,” said Bret Mayborne, the MMAC’s economic research director. “On the one hand, overall job totals in the metro area are inching toward an all-time record, but at the same time the aggregate total of upward pointing indicators is at the low end of its range in the current economic expansion.”
Highlights of the report include:
Highlights of the report include:
- Nonfarm employment numbered 880,900 in May, a 0.7% increase from one year ago. May’s gain ranks marginally higher than the average year-over-year gain (+0.6%) posted over the course of 2019’s first five months.
- May’s overall employment increase was based on a fairly narrow industry base. In total only four of ten major industry sectors registered year-over-year growth. The education & health services sector posted May’s strongest gain, up 3.3% from year-ago levels.
- Manufacturing indicators were mixed. Manufacturing employment rose for the 14th consecutive month (vs. year-ago levels) but hours and earnings indicators for manufacturing production workers were generally negative.
Metro area unemployment indicators registered modest improvement in May. The number of unemployed fell 1.2% from year-ago levels to 23,900 while new unemployment compensation claims numbered 2,651, an 8% decrease from one year ago.
A small drop was recorded in Metro Milwaukee’s seasonally unadjusted unemployment rate vs. year-ago levels, down 0.1 percentage points. Metro Milwaukee’s 2.9% May rate ranks lower than the 3.4% rate posted nationally but higher than Wisconsin’s 2.7% rate.
IIndicators: May 2019 vs. May 2018
Nonfarm employment levels have slowly been creeping toward all-time high levels. May’s 880,900 figure represents the sixth highest monthly job total posted. The record total is 887,000 recorded in June 2000. At the current pace of growth (0.7% over the May 2018 to May 2019 period), the metro job total may reach a new all-time high in June.
Among 10 major industry sectors, less than half (four) recorded year-over-year job gains. Strong gains in the education & health services (up 3.3%) and leisure & hospitality (up 2.7%) sectors helped drive overall employment levels upward for the month. Gains were also recorded in the other services (up 2.1%) and manufacturing (up 0.5%) sectors.
The largest number of major industry sectors (six) registered year-over-year employment declines. The information (down 1.5%) and financial activities (down 1.2%) sectors posted the steepest May declines. Employment decreases were also recorded in the trade, transportation & utilities (down 1%), government (down 0.8%), construction, mining & natural resources (down 0.6%) and professional & business (down 0.2%) sectors.
Gains in manufacturing jobs were partially offset by declines in area production and earnings indicators. The length of the workweek for manufacturing production workers averaged 41.2 hours in May, down 4% over year-ago levels. A marginal decline was recorded in average hourly earnings to $22.62, while average weekly earnings fell 4% (to $932).
For the first time since April 2018, both local housing and real estate indicators tracked by the MMAC posted gains. May’s 1.7% increase in metro area existing home sales (to 1,761) follows eight consecutive months of year-over-year decline. Mortgages registered in Milwaukee County increased 11.5% vs. year-ago levels to 2,499, this indicator’s strongest increase since April 2017.
New-car registrations rose 15.1% in May to 1,872, this indicator’s second year-over-year gain in three months. Figures for air passenger usage of Mitchell International Airport were unavailable at the time of this report.
Among 10 major industry sectors, less than half (four) recorded year-over-year job gains. Strong gains in the education & health services (up 3.3%) and leisure & hospitality (up 2.7%) sectors helped drive overall employment levels upward for the month. Gains were also recorded in the other services (up 2.1%) and manufacturing (up 0.5%) sectors.
The largest number of major industry sectors (six) registered year-over-year employment declines. The information (down 1.5%) and financial activities (down 1.2%) sectors posted the steepest May declines. Employment decreases were also recorded in the trade, transportation & utilities (down 1%), government (down 0.8%), construction, mining & natural resources (down 0.6%) and professional & business (down 0.2%) sectors.
Gains in manufacturing jobs were partially offset by declines in area production and earnings indicators. The length of the workweek for manufacturing production workers averaged 41.2 hours in May, down 4% over year-ago levels. A marginal decline was recorded in average hourly earnings to $22.62, while average weekly earnings fell 4% (to $932).
For the first time since April 2018, both local housing and real estate indicators tracked by the MMAC posted gains. May’s 1.7% increase in metro area existing home sales (to 1,761) follows eight consecutive months of year-over-year decline. Mortgages registered in Milwaukee County increased 11.5% vs. year-ago levels to 2,499, this indicator’s strongest increase since April 2017.
New-car registrations rose 15.1% in May to 1,872, this indicator’s second year-over-year gain in three months. Figures for air passenger usage of Mitchell International Airport were unavailable at the time of this report.
Other Indicators (Latest Available)
Consumer prices nationally, as measured by the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U), rose 1.8% in May (vs. May 2018) to 256.092 (1981-84=100). As of 2017’s second half, consumer price index numbers are no longer available for the Milwaukee area.