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January Economic Trends
March 25, 2020 – Before the coronavirus pandemic caused significant disruption to the local economy, economic activity in Milwaukee metro area businesses had registered mixed results in January, as 11 of 23 such indicators posted year-over-year gains according to a monthly report by the Metropolitan Milwaukee Association of Commerce (MMAC). January’s total ranks higher than December’s six upward pointing indicators. |
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“January marks an improvement from 2019’s trend, but the elephant in the room is the future economic effects of the response to the COVID-19 pandemic. Numbers reflecting the extent of these negative effects will come in future months,” said Bret Mayborne, the MMAC’s economic research director. “On another note, annual revisions to employment and labor force data completed in March recorded slower business activity in 2019 than originally reported with an average of eight of 23 indicators per month pointing upward.”
Highlights of the report include:
Highlights of the report include:
- Nonfarm employment in the metro area averaged 863,800 in January, a 0.2% increase over year-ago levels. January’s gain marks an improvement from the revised 0.2% job decline posted in December (vs. December 2018).
- Four of ten major industry sectors posted year-over-year job gains in January with the education & health services sector registering the largest such gain, up 3%. Conversely, among the six major industry decliners, the steepest job decrease was posted in the information sector, down 2.9% from one year ago.
- Manufacturing indicators registered negative results in January. Manufacturing employment fell 1.1% vs. year-ago levels while a production worker’s workweek length and earnings levels posted year-over-year declines.
Metro Milwaukee’s seasonally unadjusted unemployment rate for January rose 0.4 percentage points from one year ago to 4%. Metro Milwaukee’s rate ranks below Wisconsin’s 4.2% but matches the nation’s 4% rate.
Indicators: January 2020 vs. January 2019
Annual revisions to nonfarm employment for 2019 by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) placed overall job growth in the metro area notably lower than originally estimated. Before revision, the percentage job gain for 2019 stood at 0.9%. The revised 2019 job change was essentially unchanged, marking the first time since 2010 that there was a lack of job growth over the course of the year. Metro Milwaukee’s employment trend began 2020 with some modest growth. Nonfarm jobs rose 0.2% in January to 863,800, vs. the 0.2% year-over-year job decrease posted in December.
Among 10 major industry sectors, four posted job gains in January. Jobs in the education & health services sector posted the largest percentage increase, up 3% vs. year-ago levels. The government (up 2%), construction, mining & natural resources (up 1%), and financial activities (up 0.4%) sectors also posted gains.
Among sectors with job declines, January’s steepest year-over-year decrease was registered in the information sector, down 2.9%. Employment declines were also posted in the leisure & hospitality (down 2%), manufacturing (down 1.1%), trade, transportation & utilities (down 1.1%), other services (down 0.9%), and professional & business services (down 0.1%) sectors.
As originally reported, manufacturing job numbers fell 0.3% over the course of 2019. BLS revisions reversed the decline to a 1.2% annual increase. Monthly manufacturing job numbers did fade at the end of 2019. This trend continued into January, with a 1.1% year-over-year decline. Hours and earnings indicators in manufacturing registered continuing declines. The length of the average workweek for manufacturing production workers fell 6.4%, to 40.9 hours. Average weekly earnings for such workers decreased 9% (to $903), while average hourly earnings fell 2.8% (to $22.09).
Housing and real estate indicators were positive with both indicators tracked by the MMAC posting their respective seventh consecutive month of year-over-year increase. Existing home sales in the metro area numbered 890 in January, up 7.5%, while mortgages recorded in Milwaukee County rose 75.5%, to 2,385.
New-car registrations in the metro area fell 15.3% in January, to 1,022, its eighth consecutive month of year-over-year decline. Air passenger totals for Mitchell International Airport numbered 491,589, up 1% from one year ago.
Among 10 major industry sectors, four posted job gains in January. Jobs in the education & health services sector posted the largest percentage increase, up 3% vs. year-ago levels. The government (up 2%), construction, mining & natural resources (up 1%), and financial activities (up 0.4%) sectors also posted gains.
Among sectors with job declines, January’s steepest year-over-year decrease was registered in the information sector, down 2.9%. Employment declines were also posted in the leisure & hospitality (down 2%), manufacturing (down 1.1%), trade, transportation & utilities (down 1.1%), other services (down 0.9%), and professional & business services (down 0.1%) sectors.
As originally reported, manufacturing job numbers fell 0.3% over the course of 2019. BLS revisions reversed the decline to a 1.2% annual increase. Monthly manufacturing job numbers did fade at the end of 2019. This trend continued into January, with a 1.1% year-over-year decline. Hours and earnings indicators in manufacturing registered continuing declines. The length of the average workweek for manufacturing production workers fell 6.4%, to 40.9 hours. Average weekly earnings for such workers decreased 9% (to $903), while average hourly earnings fell 2.8% (to $22.09).
Housing and real estate indicators were positive with both indicators tracked by the MMAC posting their respective seventh consecutive month of year-over-year increase. Existing home sales in the metro area numbered 890 in January, up 7.5%, while mortgages recorded in Milwaukee County rose 75.5%, to 2,385.
New-car registrations in the metro area fell 15.3% in January, to 1,022, its eighth consecutive month of year-over-year decline. Air passenger totals for Mitchell International Airport numbered 491,589, up 1% from one year ago.
Other Indicators (Latest Available)
Consumer prices nationally, as measured by the Consumer Price Index for Urban Consumers (CPI-U), rose 2.5% in January (vs. January, 2019) to 257.971 (1981-84=100).