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February Economic Trends
April 13, 2021 MILWAUKEE – Metro area business activity indicators remain sluggish as only four local indictors pointed upward in February vs. year-ago levels, according to a monthly report by the Metropolitan Milwaukee Association of Commerce (MMAC.) February’s total is down from the five of 22 available indicators which registered year-over-year gains in January. |
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“While job declines year-over-year have softened in recent months, the metro area jobs recovery rate for this downturn remains at a bit over 50%,” said Bret Mayborne, the MMAC’s economic research director. “Rising earnings indicators locally as well as improvement in consumer sentiment nationally suggest that the recovery may accelerate in the near-term future.”
Highlights of the data include:
- Nonfarm jobs in February registered a 7.1% decline from year-ago levels, down marginally from the 7.3% fall posted in January. Metro area jobs averaged 804,300 in February, ranking nearly 62,000 under year-ago levels.
- Among major industry sectors, leisure & hospitality (down 25.6%) posted the largest percentage job decline compared to one year ago. Conversely the professional & business services sector posted the smallest decrease, down 2.6%. In aggregate all 10 major industry sectors posted year-over-year job declines in February.
- February’s seasonally unadjusted unemployment rate of 5.2% ranks 1.9 percentage points higher than the 3.3% rate recorded one year ago. Wisconsin’s February rate ranked lower at 4.8% while the U.S. rate at 6.6% ranked higher.
- The number of unemployed in the metro area rose 53.9% vs. year-ago levels to 41,400.
- For the fourth consecutive month job declines in manufacturing trended downward. Manufacturing’s 3.6% decline in February is down from January’s 4% decrease.
- Manufacturing earnings and production indicators for February were mixed. The length of the average workweek for production workers fell 0.7% vs. one year ago (to 40.8 hours) following back-to-back months of growth. On the other hand, worker earnings indicators rose. Average weekly earnings for such workers increased 4.4% (to $971) while average hourly earnings increased 5.2% (to $23.79).
- Both new car registrations and air passenger totals remain in long term decline. Metro area new-car registrations for February fell for the twenty-first consecutive month – down 7.1% from one year ago and air passengers using Mitchell International Airport decreased for the twelfth consecutive month – down 63.8% from one year ago.
- Both local housing and real estate indicators posted year-over-year gains in February. Metro area existing homes sold rose marginally, up 0.1% vs. one year ago while mortgages recorded in Milwaukee County increased 81.4%, this indicator’s largest percentage increase since September 2003.
Note
Seasonally unadjusted data is used in this analysis thus month-over-month job changes may be due to seasonal effects. A truer month-to-month trend is captured in seasonally adjusted data. Unfortunately for most metro areas the breadth of employment and unemployment data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is almost exclusively released in not seasonally adjusted form. Total nonfarm employment is available as a seasonally adjusted series for the metro area.
The seasonally adjusted series showed a loss of 112,400 jobs in April (vs. March), the beginning of the Covid-19 recession. Since that time, the local economy added back 58,000 jobs cumulatively in the month-over-month record over the May 2020 to February 2021 period or 52% of the initial loss.
Seasonally unadjusted data is used in this analysis thus month-over-month job changes may be due to seasonal effects. A truer month-to-month trend is captured in seasonally adjusted data. Unfortunately for most metro areas the breadth of employment and unemployment data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is almost exclusively released in not seasonally adjusted form. Total nonfarm employment is available as a seasonally adjusted series for the metro area.
The seasonally adjusted series showed a loss of 112,400 jobs in April (vs. March), the beginning of the Covid-19 recession. Since that time, the local economy added back 58,000 jobs cumulatively in the month-over-month record over the May 2020 to February 2021 period or 52% of the initial loss.