Beaulieu: Economy to improve this year, country to face headwinds in the 2030s
The U.S. economy was set to provide some clarity in 2025, according to Consulting Principal and Chief Economist at ITR Economics Brian Beaulieu.
“Voila, we end up with tariffs, all sorts of machinations that make life anything but easy right now,” he said.
Despite the murky economic atmosphere of today, Beulieu – in town to speak to a group of area business leaders Wednesday – said the second half of 2025 is shaping up positively.
“We expect the economy is going to be recovering from the stun grenades and other economic issues slowly but surely as we move through 2025,” he said. “And you’ll find the second half of 2025 is better than the first half. You’re going to find that ’26 is better than ’25. Things are going to continue to improve.”
Beaulieu said the five-year economic forecast looks good for the U.S. through 2029 before some difficulties in the 2030s.
“You’re running with everything you’re worth for the next five years only to be hitting some significant headwinds in the 2030s,” he said.
Trade vs. budget deficits
Beaulieu said “tariffs have a way of weakening the global structure,” and historically, when instituted, they are eventually lifted in favor of free trade policies. He added that the focus out of Washington on trade deficits is misplaced. He said the U.S. should be focusing its attention on budget deficits instead.
“Trade deficits aren’t nearly as important as budget deficits,” he said. “We should be laser-focused on the budget deficit because that’s the issue, not the trade deficit.”
While the country transitions into a new administration and uncertainty seems to rule the day, Beaulieu said he is bullish on domestic investment, especially when it comes to capitalizing on new technology,
“Who’s got more young people on this planet as a percentage of the population than the United States? Nobody,” he said. “Demographics matter. And we have the demographics. We have the young people. We have the culture. We have the cash to make this new technology work for the world. I don’t worry one moment about our country.”
