Brian Beaulieu returns to provide economic insights
With an election front-and-center, ongoing conflict in many corners of the globe and inflation still impacting everyone’s bottom line, our economy is on everyone’s mind.
Those attending “What’s Next: Anticipating Business Cycle Changes in 2024/25” on March 13, at the Brookfield Conference Center, will get to hear the perspective of an economics expert on our fiscal future. Brian Beaulieu, CEO of ITR Economics, is one of the country’s foremost economists, researching the use of business cycle analysis and economic forecasts to increase business profitability.
Those attending “What’s Next: Anticipating Business Cycle Changes in 2024/25” on March 13, at the Brookfield Conference Center, will get to hear the perspective of an economics expert on our fiscal future. Brian Beaulieu, CEO of ITR Economics, is one of the country’s foremost economists, researching the use of business cycle analysis and economic forecasts to increase business profitability.
Beaulieu will break down trends and help you and your business develop tactics to anticipate the next business cycle.Before his March appearance, Beaulieu graciously agreed to take part in a short Q&A.
Q: To this point, we’ve avoided the recession that many were anticipating. Are you surprised? Should we still be bracing for a downturn?
A: We are not surprised because we forecasted GDP growth would occur throughout 2023. GDP is how most people measure whether the economy at large is growing or not. Also consistent with our expectations, manufacturing has slipped into a mildly negative trend beginning in the third quarter of 2023 and extending through year end.
Q: Recent inflation numbers seemed to temper hopes for rate cuts. Do you anticipate any cuts this year?
A: We continue to anticipate lower interest rates in 2024. Through our weekly FedWatch, we have been saying rate cuts were not likely to start until the second quarter of this year. The recent resistance in the disinflation trend is not surprising because it is wage-inflation induced. The Fed and the futures market seem convinced that some interest rate relief will occur in 2024. We think the trend will likely continue into 2025.
A: We continue to anticipate lower interest rates in 2024. Through our weekly FedWatch, we have been saying rate cuts were not likely to start until the second quarter of this year. The recent resistance in the disinflation trend is not surprising because it is wage-inflation induced. The Fed and the futures market seem convinced that some interest rate relief will occur in 2024. We think the trend will likely continue into 2025.
Q: What kind of impact does an election year have on the economy?
A: Election years tend to have an unfavorable impact on the economy in that media/political “noise” is amplified and people have an even more difficult time discerning what is true from what is fiction. The “noise” makes sound planning more difficult to achieve. We will be cutting through the “noise” at our March 13 event.
A: Election years tend to have an unfavorable impact on the economy in that media/political “noise” is amplified and people have an even more difficult time discerning what is true from what is fiction. The “noise” makes sound planning more difficult to achieve. We will be cutting through the “noise” at our March 13 event.
Q: What kind of impact will global conflicts have on the U.S. economy in 2024?
A: The only primary threat at this time would be if the war in the Middle East broadens to the extent that global oil prices become impacted (rise appreciably). Such a trend would cut into the consumer’s discretionary income. This far into the war, that threat has not materialized.
A: The only primary threat at this time would be if the war in the Middle East broadens to the extent that global oil prices become impacted (rise appreciably). Such a trend would cut into the consumer’s discretionary income. This far into the war, that threat has not materialized.
