Second-Quarter Business Outlook Survey
Published April 30, 2025
| Second quarter MMAC business outlook survey |
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MILWAUKEE – Metro area businesses see slow growth in coming months, according to a Business Outlook Survey conducted by the Metropolitan Milwaukee Association of Commerce (MMAC). Fifty-two percent of businesses surveyed see real sales increases in 2025’s second quarter, 36% see profit gains and 28% expect job gains vs. year-ago levels.
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Expectations For 2025's second quarter:
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“Expectations among local businesses on future growth are mixed. The level of real sales optimism for 2025’s second quarter moved notably upward from first-quarter levels. At the same time, profit and employment forecasts ranked lower than at year’s start. Businesses’ top concerns going into the second quarter were continuing economic growth, price inflation and tariffs which likely factored into the modest near-term business expectations.”
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Bret Mayborne
MMAC's Vice President - Economic Research
Second-Quarter 2025 Outlook
Sales/Revenue Expectations
The trend in local sales optimism is largely positive. Currently 52% of all businesses surveyed predict real sales gains in 2025’s second quarter (vs. year-ago levels), 22% see sales declines and 26% expect no change. The percentage predicting second-quarter growth is up from the 42% who forecast first-quarter gains three months earlier and rank higher than quarterly optimism expressed throughout 2024’s four quarters.
By industry, non-manufacturers reported stronger sales expectations than manufacturers. Fifty-eight percent of non-manufacturers see second-quarter sales growth while 41% of manufacturers
see such gains. Results also indicated a difference in expectations among large employers (100 or more employees) and small employers. Sixty-three percent of large employers forecast second-quarter sales gains vs. 46% for small employers.
Profit Expectations
Profit expectations are underwhelming. Overall, 36% of all Milwaukee area businesses see higher profits in 2025’s second quarter (vs. year-ago levels) lower than the 40% who forecast first-quarter profit gains. Current profit expectations are the lowest they have been since 2020’s fourth quarter. Thirty-six percent of those surveyed see no change in profit levels for the second quarter while 28% see profit declines.
Employment Expectations
Slow growth has best characterized the job situation in the metro area for the past 15 months. Over this period, nonfarm employment growth has averaged 0.2% (year-over-year), lower than the 1.7% average increase registered over the 2021 to 2023 period.
Second-quarter survey results suggest a continuing low job growth environment. Over half of businesses surveyed (52%) expect job levels to remain the same in the second quarter (year-over-year), slightly lower than first-quarter levels. On the positive side, 28% of businesses surveyed expect second-quarter employment gains (vs. year-ago levels), outnumbering the 21% who predict job declines.
By employment size, large employers – with 37% seeing second-quarter 2025 gains – are more likely to predict employment growth than small employers – where 23% see gains. By industry, 36% of manufacturers predict second-quarter job gains (vs. year-ago levels), higher than the 22% of non-manufacturers who forecast growth.
Wage & Salary Expectations
Future wage and salary expectations fell modestly over the quarter. On average, the change in per person employee wages and salaries is forecast to rise 2.6% over the next 12 months, under the 3.3% annualized increase predicted in each of the two previous quarters.
The trend in local sales optimism is largely positive. Currently 52% of all businesses surveyed predict real sales gains in 2025’s second quarter (vs. year-ago levels), 22% see sales declines and 26% expect no change. The percentage predicting second-quarter growth is up from the 42% who forecast first-quarter gains three months earlier and rank higher than quarterly optimism expressed throughout 2024’s four quarters.
By industry, non-manufacturers reported stronger sales expectations than manufacturers. Fifty-eight percent of non-manufacturers see second-quarter sales growth while 41% of manufacturers
see such gains. Results also indicated a difference in expectations among large employers (100 or more employees) and small employers. Sixty-three percent of large employers forecast second-quarter sales gains vs. 46% for small employers.
Profit Expectations
Profit expectations are underwhelming. Overall, 36% of all Milwaukee area businesses see higher profits in 2025’s second quarter (vs. year-ago levels) lower than the 40% who forecast first-quarter profit gains. Current profit expectations are the lowest they have been since 2020’s fourth quarter. Thirty-six percent of those surveyed see no change in profit levels for the second quarter while 28% see profit declines.
Employment Expectations
Slow growth has best characterized the job situation in the metro area for the past 15 months. Over this period, nonfarm employment growth has averaged 0.2% (year-over-year), lower than the 1.7% average increase registered over the 2021 to 2023 period.
Second-quarter survey results suggest a continuing low job growth environment. Over half of businesses surveyed (52%) expect job levels to remain the same in the second quarter (year-over-year), slightly lower than first-quarter levels. On the positive side, 28% of businesses surveyed expect second-quarter employment gains (vs. year-ago levels), outnumbering the 21% who predict job declines.
By employment size, large employers – with 37% seeing second-quarter 2025 gains – are more likely to predict employment growth than small employers – where 23% see gains. By industry, 36% of manufacturers predict second-quarter job gains (vs. year-ago levels), higher than the 22% of non-manufacturers who forecast growth.
Wage & Salary Expectations
Future wage and salary expectations fell modestly over the quarter. On average, the change in per person employee wages and salaries is forecast to rise 2.6% over the next 12 months, under the 3.3% annualized increase predicted in each of the two previous quarters.
2025 Calendar Year Sales Expectations
For the calendar year, 59% of businesses surveyed see real sales gains for 2025, 16% see declines while 26% see no change. The percentage predicting an annual sales increase marks a notable downgrade from those expressed three months ago when 77% of those surveyed predicted a 2025 sales gain.
Business Concerns
Regarding business concerns, Milwaukee area businesses have shown the strongest concern toward uncertainty in continuing economic growth. Price inflation, tariffs and talent attraction/labor shortages follow as the next highest rated concerns in rank order.
MMAC conducted the Business Outlook Survey in mid-April. It includes responses from 58 metro Milwaukee firms, representing a wide range of sizes and industries.
Business Concerns
Regarding business concerns, Milwaukee area businesses have shown the strongest concern toward uncertainty in continuing economic growth. Price inflation, tariffs and talent attraction/labor shortages follow as the next highest rated concerns in rank order.
MMAC conducted the Business Outlook Survey in mid-April. It includes responses from 58 metro Milwaukee firms, representing a wide range of sizes and industries.